Environmental idiocy: only have one child.

Diane Francis, writing out of the Financial Times waggles her finger at human (Western) civilization, warning us that we are overpopulating the earth and we had all better start snipping and tying right quick. We should take a lesson from China and one child, she declares, should be the global rule of law lest we find ourselves with an "unsustainable" global population of nine billion by 2050. Well, we had a good run folks - smoke 'em if you got 'em I suppose.

What would we do without all of these wackjobs? I mean seriously, what would we blog about?

First, it turns out she's, well, being a tad hypocritical and has two kids.

...our two babies, Eric and Julie...

Yeah, who couldn't see that coming?

Second, she's kind of preaching to the wrong crowd here. The developed countries only constitute 18% of the world's current population. From the UN World Population Prospects 2008:

Note that Europe will likely be smaller in 2050. Indeed, in 2050 the UN predicts that the developed nations will only constitute 14% of the global population.

Clearly, if we are to dramatically change the level of global population it's not going to come from the Developed countries. Fear not though, I'm sure Diane's idea will go over swimmingly in Asia and Africa. The fate of the world is at stake, after all. I am very confident. Yep.

Third, I'm not sure why she thinks 9.1 billion is unsustainable. You hear this all the time, that in such-and-such year the human population will be unsustainable and billions will die in a sudden, massive famine but I haven't seen anything substantial and convincing on the subject yet. Chicken Littles have been predicting global starvation since well, people began eating. Or at least writing about eating. And yet, somehow the human ability to adapt, invent, and create has allowed us to stay a few steps ahead of the ever-impending-doom-of-mankind. The next Norman Borlaug was just born in India or the Philippines and 80 years from now his or her great grandchildren will be laughing about people like Francis and their silly, primitive ideas. Clearly, Francis does not put much stock in human capital.

Fourth, the UN predictions actually say that 2050 is roughly peak global population.

"In the medium variant, fertility declines from 2.56 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.02 children per woman in 2045-2050."

2.02 is below replacement rate and it's around this point or not soon after that the UN predicts the global population to peak and then actually start declining. And really, the only reason that it's going to take that long is because people are living longer and longer - not that they will be having more children.

Maybe Diane can propose a lifetime quota instead. 70 years and you're outa here. It's for the good of the planet! Ladies first though Diane, eh?

h/t NRO.